Ki Young Ju, the CEO of CryptoQuant and a respected on-chain analyst, has adjusted his perspective on Bitcoin's market cycle. Ju now concedes that he misjudged his original assertion that “the Bitcoin bull cycle was over.” On the bullish side, he points to the game-changing impact of Bitcoin spot ETFs and increased institutional participation. This shift requires a significant re-thinking of classic Bitcoin market dynamics. New entrants and significant capital are constantly changing the cryptocurrency market.
Ju shared his changed forecast in a Medium post. He added that the biggest difference since 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs were launched. Indeed, these ETFs have quickly and dramatically increased the potential for institutional liquidity within Bitcoin, fundamentally changing the forces at play behind Bitcoin’s price movements.
Impact of Bitcoin ETFs on Market Liquidity
The anticipated approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs would mark a new chapter of institutional liquidity. This trend is transforming the economics of the market.… Inflows are coming fast Daily ETF volumes are now nearing $10 billion, showing the continuing flood of capital from institutional investors. This unprecedented increase in liquidity has broken old correlations, making past market fundamentals even more unreliable.
Ju further underscored the historic shifts in the overall market composition making up the market. She highlighted the growing influence of new actors, such as institutional investors and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Whereas before, the players were largely legacy whales, miners, and upcoming retail investors. While institutional capital has caused the market to be more sophisticated and dynamic than in yesteryears.
While this influx of institutional money has certainly added liquidity, liquidity has its own new levels of uncertainty. Ju also acknowledged the passing of Bitcoin cycles’ predictability.
Analyzing "Signal 365 MA" in the New Market Landscape
To show just how fast the market dynamics have shifted, Ki Young Ju used a chart he dubbed “Signal 365 MA.” This is one of those charts that has been a very reliable leading indicator of market turns over the years. During bear markets such as those in 2018 and 2022, it produced deep excursions under the 365-day moving average (MA). Deep red peaks above the 365 MA were visible for all notable bull runs, including 2017 and 2021.
In addition, institutional investors are coming onto the market and the effects of ETFs are substantial. Therefore, the trends we had come to expect from the “Signal 365 MA” chart are likely a thing of the past. Newfound increased liquidity and the arrival of new market participants have made a once simpler market much more nuanced, demanding a deeper understanding of market behavior.
In closing, Ju underlined the need for being aware of institutional liquidity. Fulfulling the promise and avoiding the peril of 2025 hinges on this understanding. It’s time to rethink the typical metrics and indicators we use to analyze Bitcoin’s market cycles. With everyone testing these new dynamics in play, it requires a new eye.
Adapting to the Evolving Bitcoin Market
Ki Young Ju’s updated perspective highlights the importance of constantly innovating within the Bitcoin ecosystem to stay ahead of the game. The new Bitcoin spot ETFs have injected fresh institutional liquidity into the market. This transformation has dramatically complicated and accelerated the market, upending classic analytical models.
"New liquidity sources and volume are becoming more uncertain, signaling a transition as the Bitcoin market merges with TradFi" - Ki Young Ju
As Bitcoin goes deeper down the rabbit hole of TradFi, the need to understand the impact of these institutional players is more important than ever. Investors and analysts must consider new metrics and indicators to effectively navigate the market's complexities and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
